The Ares l-X booster rocket made it off the launch pad with astounding success but in the long run, that launch may be the last of the Ares series rockets to see the light of day. The Ares l-X is the prototype of a rocket being designed to carry NASAs manned space effort into the future. It is an integral part of the Constellation program which is designed for replacing the current space shuttle fleet and moving their manned space program to the moon and beyond. Currently, the Ares program is so far behind schedule that there is very little chance of making it to the moon in 2020 or even supporting missions to the ISS until that vehicle is retired in 2016. The ORION capsule, which is the part of the program that carries the astronauts into space separately from heavy payloads which would be launched with heavy duty rockets, is way behind schedule and has very little chance of meeting any of its goals due to cost overruns and a lack of future funding support.
Most of the bad news for NASA is contained in the Augustine Committee Report which examined the overall Human Spaceflight Plans of NASA. A one sentence summary of the report is this---"the Human SpaceFlight program seems to be on an unsustainable trajectory".
The report does make some recommendations and that is where all the debate and arguments will begin. The initial budget for the entire Constellation program was 28 billion and it has swollen to at least 44 billion. NASAs current budget is 18 billion dollars annually and 10 billion of that is spent on the human spaceflight program. The commission estimated that NASA would need an additional 3 billion annually to meet Constellation goals and even then most of the events would be slipped several years. Give the current attitude for NASA spending projects, that additional money would not likely be available.
Here is a short summary of the committee recommendations:
1. Continue under current funding
a. shuttle retirement delayed until 2011 to help service ISS
b. de orbit ISS in 2016--Ares and Orion would not be available to service ISS
c. insufficient funds to develop lunar landing making manned moon
landing impossible
2. Continue under current funding
a. extend ISS until 2020
b. develop Lite version of Ares
c. extend shuttle fleet until 2011
d use commercial crews to service low earth needs
e. no human mission to the moon
The remaining 3 options all include additional funds for NASA
3. a. Basically the current planning with delayed missions to the moon in late 2020s
4.
a. Send humans to the moon first
b. extend ISS to 2020
c. use commercial vehicles to send humans into low earth orbit
d. extend shuttle until 2015
5. So called the "Flexible Plan"
a. operate shuttles until 2011
b. extend ISS until 2020
c. commercial crews services for low earth orbit needs
d. several options for developing heavy lift vehicles for space flight
e. possible lunar landings and rendezvous with Mars moons by late 2020s
Whatever your thoughts on this part of NASAs human space program may be, you can rest assured that it will be decided by fiscal restraints and right now that doesn't favor anything for NASA. Our nation badly needs some guidance on where we are going with our space program and what the timeline will be. With so many different thoughts and development programs going on we cannot afford to spend the limited dollars we have only to change our minds a couple of years later and start down a different line.
It is interesting to read the blog lines about NASA and the U.S. space program. There are some really radical folks out there on both ends of the spectrum. Almost as bad as the extremist on both ends of the health reform bills. What are your thoughts?